Is the Prius worth the hype?

The Wall Street Journal ran letters to the editor on the topic of hybrid cars. The feeling was that hybrids and the Prius in particular are:
- Not necessarily a good environmental desicion: their highway mileage is about the same, toxic material from battery can harm the environment
- Not usually a good financial decision: Purchase price often well over MSRP, Battery replacement costs very high,

In addition, I had suspected that gas savings do not compensate for high purchase price, so decided to run some numbers.

Assuming 16,000 Miles/Year and $3.00/Gallon, I compared a Toyota Corolla with the Toyota Prius. The HTML from my analysis doesn't seem to post here correctly, but I found it will take more than 10 years before the gas savings will recover the ~$6,700 extra paid for the Prius.
Even if the Prius was fully electric (Infinite MPG/$0 annual gas), 3 years would not be enough to recoup the cost.

The environmental benefit is questionable at best and the financial cost is significantly more. The hype is just that.

Check it out

The customer I'm working with suggested an explanation to a mysterious problem they were experiencing. The theory was highly unlikely so I brushed it off as impossible.

Later, I got a call at dinner with the news - He tested his hypothesis and it was correct. I was a little bit beside myself, but I now know that highly unlikely but potentially possible ideas should be checked out.

Using the Word

In the midst of crafting a Gospel presentation on December 17th, I was debating how much to quote from the Bible. The problem is that by appealing to the Bible, I am open to the claim that the Bible is not true. On the other hand, the Bible expresses certain facts about the world and human condition which are true.
In the end, I arrived at the following:
1) Faith comes by hearing and hearing by the Word of God. (Rom 10)
2) The Holy Spirit helps us to understand the Word of God. (1 Cor)
3) By simple observation, I do not know who is under the conviction of the Holy Spirit
4) Therefore, if I share directly from God's Word, it is possible that some may come to Faith through the work of the Holy Spirit.

From John Frame's Essay:
"Indeed, there is a sense in which all of the unbeliever's thinking is Christian. Christian presuppositions are the only way to think. The alternative is not thought but meaninglessness." Put in a trite way - "All truth is God's truth."

We cannot argue for the truth of Christianity using principles from relativism, pluralism, naturalism, or any other false worldview. But that is not because we simply assume Christianity, but because those views are demonstratably false!

If by 'Christian Presuppositions' we mean 'True Presuppositions' then there is no argument. Obviously, we should never knowingly argue using false presuppositions.

However, not all truth is distinctly Christian. Truths of logic, history, and empirical science can be observed and discussed correctly by Christians and non-christians alike. Sometimes there is disagreement on these truths, but they can all be argued apart from understanding that Jesus is God. At most, discussion at this level may lead to theism, but belief in God is a far cry from Christianity.

Then there are other truths, spiritual truths, that are distinctly Christian. These distinctives must be explained and defended in any arguement, though we can still claim and not deny them in an argument.

Five Monkeys

This is a story I received at an Oracle Education Class recently, but I'm not sure what it has to do with database software...

"Start with a very large cage containing five monkeys. Inside the cage, hang a banana on a string and place a set of stairs under it. Before long, a monkey will go to the stairs and start to climb towards the banana. As soon as he touches the stairs, spray all of the other monkeys with cold water.

After a while, another monkey makes an attempt with the same result - all the other monkeys are sprayed with cold water. Pretty soon, when another monkey tries
to climb the stairs, the other monkeys will try to prevent it.

Now, put away the cold water. Remove one monkey from the cage and replace it with a new one. The new monkey sees the banana and wants to climb the stairs. To his surprise and horror, all of the other monkeys attack him.

After another attempt and attack, he knows that if he tries to climb the stairs, he will be assaulted.

Next, remove another of the original five monkeys and replace it with a new one. The newcomer goes to the stairs and is attacked. The previous newcomer takes part in the punishment with enthusiasm! Likewise, replace a third original monkey with a new one, then a fourth, and then the fifth.

Every time the newest monkey takes to the stairs, he is attacked. Most of the monkeys that are beating him have no idea why they were not permitted to climb the stairs or why they are participating in the beating of the newest monkey.

After replacing all the original monkeys, none of the remaining monkeys have ever been sprayed with cold water. Nevertheless, no monkey ever again approaches the stairs to try for the banana. Why not? Because as far as they know that's the way it's always been done around here."

I have no idea if this experiment actually works this way, but it illustrates an idea I've been thinking about.
Often times, I am puzzled by the passionate reaction I receive when I question tradition. This year in particular I wondered why we give Christmas Gifts to each other. I heard various attempts to connect it with the birth of Jesus or the Gifts of the Magi. However, those answers don't hold water, and the real reason most people give gifts is "because that's what we do around here."

Ignorance is bliss - Most people don't question tradition and are perfectly happy without an explanation. For better or worse, it is clear that cultural pressure to conform is very strong.

"All In" (Moderation)

I know this is Christmas, but this post has nothing to do with the Birth of Jesus. Perhaps later when I have something useful to say about that...

If you don't have cable you may not know this, but Poker has become incredibly popluar. In Particlar No Limit Texas Hold 'em is the game of choice. I grew up playing 5 card draw, but Hold 'em offers more opportunities for strategy because only 2 cards are private and 3-5 cards may be visible to all players.

In Christian circles, there is division on the morality of Gambling. I've been thinking about this and here are my thoughts.
First, it helps to understand what we mean by the term 'gambling,' so I looked up the definition. To sum up, there are basically 2 definitions:
1. To bet on an uncertain outcome, as of a contest. To put up as a stake in gambling; wager.
2. To take a risk in the hope of gaining an advantage or a benefit. An act or undertaking of uncertain outcome; a risk

I believe most who object to gambling have the first definition in mind. It may conjure thoughts of Casino Games, Slot machines, and Sports Betting.
I am assuming that those opposed to betting or wagering are not opposed to gambling in the sense of simply taking risk. We all take calculated risks every day, so I am not going to address that here.

I look at betting/wagering as a form of entertainment, and when done in moderation/self-control, is no different from any other type of entertainment. Here are some common forms of entertainment:
- Eating expensive meals
- Going to see movies
- TV/DVD/iPod/Video Games
- Hobbies/sports like golf/skiing/etc.

All of these activities are not inherently bad, but the key is moderation:
- Eating food in excess is gluttony, In moderation it is required
- Watching TV in excess is probably slotful, In moderation it can be useful
- Video games in excess can distort priorities, In moderation it can teach problem solving skills and spatial visualization
- Drinking Alcohol in excess leads to drunkenness, In moderation it has some health benefits

Likewise, Betting/Wagering in excess is unwise, In moderation can be entertaining and provide income.

Risk decreases according to the information available and the control you have on the situation. In the public lotteries, for example, participants have no control on the odds or the game. No-Limit Hold 'em Poker certainly leaves a lot to chance, but I do see many aspects of the game which are controllable:
- The Betting Decision (Call, Fold, Raise Amount)
- Tells (If you are at the table)
- Players see their own cards and the community cards on the Table so they can appoximately calculate your odds of winning
- Players can track the betting patterns of other players and attempt to acertain their opponent's cards

Wagering and Betting is not a monolithic category. The games vary greatly - What is risky for one person may actually be a wise decision for another. But all in moderation.

Movie Views

Saw the The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe with Heidi this afternoon. No complaints, but its been a while since I've read the book.

I don't often read stories that are made into movies, so this was a new experience. To use a computer analogy, it is like looking from a hires picture to lowres version of the same picture. Many of the details are abreviated and surprise is usually lost. So, it now seems better to see a movie first and then read its corresponding book. Moving from lowres to highres should be a better experience since it is an expansion of information as opposed to a compression.

A tiny 'bug' I noticed...Peter stuck his sword in the ice block and after they landed I could see them talking with the sword bobbing in the water behind them - Why didn't it wash away in the rushing river? Then, they start walking away and I'm thinking - "Hey, pick up your sword!" But in the next scene, he is seen putting the sword in its sheath. I guess he heard me...
But the guy in jeans and a sweatshirt seen in Gladiator is still the coolest Movie 'bug' I've seen.

It wasn't all bad...

I guess I was a bit hard on NY. Here are the best things about the trip:
- Upgrade to Premium Service Busines Class on United both ways (its almost the same as International business class: Menu for meals, Hot Towels, Reclining seats with footrest, Personal DVD Player)
- Spending time with my wife and sister-in-law
- The customer was very cordial and our meeting was smooth and productive
- We did meet some friendly people who gave directions, provided good service at restaurants, etc.

Well, I guess none of this is redeeming of NY City itself, but that's the way I see it.

Big Rotten Apple

I don't love NY. To me it is:
- An ugly Concrete Jungle
- Too Crowded
- Freezing
- Flat and boring (all the streets look about the same after a awhile)
- NYC Subways strike and the taxis take you to the cleaners ($40 to go 10 blocks.)

Its dangerous, but I'll make a vow here: I'm never coming back to NY for pleasure, and if I have to come on business, I'm not staying a min longer than necessary.
I don't love NY, in fact, I hate NY.

One thing I learned is that leading a group of people on vacation (or anywhere) is hard. Some of the difficulties are:
- Coordinating individual and conflicting preferences
- Being conscious of the group mood

Next time I'm in a group (and not the leader), I'll make sure to give the leader lots of encouragement and gratitude.

Talking to People

On the way to work, I was listening to a radio broadcast about Dr. James Dobson. It was a tribute to his ministry, and one comment his wife made stood out to me. She said that they were at a restaurant having quiet dinner and a supporter of the ministry came over, sat down at the table, and talked with them for 30-40 mins. Certainly, this would be annoying, but Dr. Dobson took time to talk with the person and made them feel very special. One on one, he gives people full attention, not looking over their shoulder for someone more important, and makes them feel like the most important person in the room.
No matter how important we think we are, each person deserves respect and full attention.

History and a Second Chance

"Doc" Pemberton was a Pharmacist during a time when no regulations allowed people to create any concoction and advertise unproven results. He created something called French Wine Coca which was a combination of Wine (Alcohol) and Cocaine. However, Atlanta voted to become 'dry' which meant he could not sell his product because of the alcohol. He then decided to go into the soda fountain business with a modified new product. He removed the alcohol, added sugar, cocaine and from an African plant called 'Kola' he extracted caffine. A little while later the concoction was given its modern name - Coca Cola.

One day after our thoughts were provoked by a homeless man, Heidi had the opportunity to meet a guy outside of Blockbuster in Castro Valley. She offered him some money and also invited him to the family night dinner at Redwood Chapel. We waited and searched for him from 5:30 to 6:00 pm, but we unfortunately did not see him.
In the end, I think we did things better than we would have the day before. Hopefully we will soon have other opportunities to show Christ's compassion to others.

Kirkwood and Compassion

Went to Kirkwood today. Of all the local resorts, it was the one that is only fully open because there has been so little snow.
Kirkwood is OK - Not great, just ok:
- Snow not bad, but the runs are mostly of straight and somewhat boring
- Some steep double black diamonds, but I'm not crazy

For the price ($62), I was expecting more. So far Squaw seems to be the best in California that I've seen - the number and length of their runs makes it a great workout and adventure.

On the way back home, we (Heidi and I) saw a homeless man asking for money near the parking lot exit. We didn't have any cash on us and proceeded to drive away. However, as we left, my conscience began convicting me. Thoughts of the good samaritan flashed in my mind. What if I was in his position? What else could I have done? How should we approach to Homeless or those in physical need? Here's what I decided:
1. I should say "yes" as my first response
2. If "yes" is not possible, find a reasonable alternative
3. My motive is compassion - not any ulteriour motive

The BAM

The Bible Answer Man, Hank Hanegraff was live and in person at Neighborhood Church. Nate and Amy accompanied Heidi and I to hear him speak. Some of my thoughts:
1. In person he is very animated. Obviously this doesn't come across on the radio.
2. He has an incredible memory of scripture - Quoted entire Rev 1, 22, much of Matt 6, 1 Thes 4.
3. He's very Gracious, patient and forgiving with an audience. Does not embarass or demean anyone.

As I interact with people and have teaching roles, I think I can learn a lot from him on these three points.

Fine Food and United Airlines Global Services

Today I Sao Paulo, had lunch at Dom Curro Spanish resturant with Jaime. Among other things, the shrimp/garlic/olive oil dish was excellent. So good, we ordered a second one.
I'm not sure of the final tally, but it was not cheap. Having been travelling regularly on business, I've had the chance to eat at some extremely fancy places. $60 Dinners are not unheard of.
Conventional Wisdom says that the more you spend on food, the better it is. Certainly, the food is usually excellent. But having tasted it all, I see a diminishing return after $25. And sometimes, a $5 sandwich can satisfy more than a $50 steak.
Donald Trump once said that he can get any desert the world has to offer, but an Oreo Cookie is right at the top of his list of favorites.
I always knew that cheap isn't always inferior, but with experience, it is now confirmed for me.


I travel a lot on United Airlines, and have almost reached their 1K status level (after only 6 months). On United's announcments and checkin lines, I have often seen or heard the term 'Global Services', but I could not figure out what this meant.

On the way back from Brazil, I sat next to a guy who works for McDonalds (not a burger flipper) who told me he has Global Services status. It is an unpublished/unadvertised status that is available by special invite only. He flew ~150k miles per year for several years when he received the Global Services invitation. Some of the benefits are more systemwide upgrades and higher priority over 1Ks on waitlists.
Nothing life changing, but its nice to learn something new.

Thoughts

Sometimes, occasionally, profound or interesting thoughts come to me. Or I have an experience that is worth remembering.
However, I have a bad memory. So, since it is difficult to think of the same thought twice, I thought that I should start writing down my thoughts. This is the first one.